Most of the focus on climate change is how the Earth is getting hotter. But in the Atlantic Ocean, a British research vessel studies how changes could actually lead to winters getting much colder for the UK and western Europe. Because of the impact of climate change on a key Atlantic current - known as the AMOC - which helps regulate our weather, it’s possible that winters as cold as Canada could be bound for the continent. The current is steadily weakening and British scientists leading the research have given a chilling warning.

Channel 4 News Chief Correspondent Alex Thomson joined the team on an 8-day voyage to see just how close Europe is to a frozen future.

La cutrificación

 

Por Antonio Turiel    

Físico, matemático y experto en energía. Trabaja en el Instituto de Ciencias del Mar del CSIC.

     Empiezo este post a bordo de un tren, de Madrid a Barcelona, reflexionando sobre los eventos que han marcado las últimas semanas.  

Para mi personalmente han sido días muy complicados por los problemas de movilidad que se están experimentando en Cataluña. Dependo del…

La cutrificación

الأرض تقترب من نقطة تحول قد تقود إلى ارتفاع غير مسبوق في الحرارة ومستوى البحار

الأرض تقترب من نقطة تحول قد تقود إلى ارتفاع غير مسبوق في الحرارة ومستوى البحار

أفريقيا تواجه تهديدًا من تباطؤ التيار الأطلسي.. ثغرة في سياسات المناخ

أفريقيا تواجه تهديدًا من تباطؤ التيار الأطلسي.. ثغرة في سياسات المناخ

The Norwegian Atlantic Ocean Current Branch of AMOC is Changing: Carrying More Heat to High Arctic

Corrientes marinas clima global: El motor del planeta

Aunque todos piensan que el sol es el único responsable de nuestro clima, la realidad es que el océano es el verdadero director de orquesta que decide dónde hace frío y dónde calor. Estas inmensas masas de agua funcionan como una gigantesca cinta transportadora que mueve energía desde el ecuador hacia los polos, permitiendo que lugares como Londres no se sientan como la Antártida. Sin las…

Corrientes marinas clima global: El motor del planeta

AMOC - Why the long ears

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AMOC - It’s in the blood

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Not me crashing out about the weakening AMOC at 6am

El caos climático ya está aquí: Irán plantea trasladar su capital e Islandia ve amenazada su existencia

Por Andrés Actis     

Periodista licenciado en Comunicación Social (UNR-Argentina). Colabora en diferentes medios, entre ellos El Salto.

Sin un horizonte político de eliminación de los combustibles fósiles y con un objetivo de +1,5ºC muerto, los científicos climáticos piden una adaptación social ya no sólo a los fenómenos extremos, sino también a los “puntos de inflexión”, la posible…

El caos climático ya está aquí: Irán plantea trasladar su capital e Islandia ve amenazada su existencia

The planet has entered a ‘new reality’ as it hits its first climate tipping point, report finds | CNN

Scary. Billionaires and their corporations are killing us on a massive scale.

September 2025 in Review

Most frightening and/or depressing story: We are most likely on a path to the AMOC tipping point. I distinguished between the tipping point, which is when collapse becomes inevitable, and the actual collapse itself. These are separated in time, which means the tipping point may only be called in retrospect when it is too late to prevent the collapse. This why being “on the path to the tipping…

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the AMOC tipping point

AMOC is of course the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current, and a new study summarized by Guardian suggests we are on a path to its tipping point.

Climate models recently indicated that a collapse before 2100 was unlikely but the new analysis examined models that were run for longer, to 2300 and 2500. These show the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed…

the AMOC tipping point

AMOC Collapse Risk Much Higher, According to New Research: 25%, 37%, 70% for Low to High Emissions

Two new, independent scientific research papers published in the last few days find that risks of AMOC collapse are much higher than previously thought, and will happen sooner than thought.

I chat about this new research, and caution that it does not account for accelerated Greenland melt putting more fresh water into the North Atlantic Ocean, and does not consider effects of collapse of Antarctic sea ice since 2015 and the slowdown of the Antarctic Overturning Circulation.

Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds

Excerpt from this story from The Guardian:

The collapse of a critical Atlantic current can no longer be considered a low-likelihood event, a study has concluded, making deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions even more urgent to avoid the catastrophic impact.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is a major part of the global climate system. It brings sun-warmed tropical water to Europe and the Arctic, where it cools and sinks to form a deep return current. The Amoc was already known to be at its weakest in 1,600 years as a result of the climate crisis.

Climate models recently indicated that a collapse before 2100 was unlikely but the new analysis examined models that were run for longer, to 2300 and 2500. These show the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades, but that the collapse itself may not happen until 50 to 100 years later.

The research found that if carbon emissions continued to rise, 70% of the model runs led to collapse, while an intermediate level of emissions resulted in collapse in 37% of the models. Even in the case of low future emissions, an Amoc shutdown happened in 25% of the models.

Scientists have warned previously that Amoc collapse must be avoided “at all costs”. It would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50cm [about 20 inches] to already rising sea levels.

The new results are “quite shocking, because I used to say that the chance of Amoc collapsing as a result of global warming was less than 10%”, said Prof Stefan Rahmstorf, at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who was part of the study team. “Now even in a low-emission scenario, sticking to the Paris agreement, it looks like it may be more like 25%.

“These numbers are not very certain, but we are talking about a matter of risk assessment where even a 10% chance of an Amoc collapse would be far too high. We found that the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable is probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so. That is quite a shocking finding as well and why we have to act really fast in cutting down emissions.”

Scientists spotted warning signs of a tipping point in 2021 and know that the Amoc has collapsed in the Earth’s past. “Observations in the deep [far North Atlantic] already show a downward trend over the past five to 10 years, consistent with the models’ projections,” said Prof Sybren Drijfhout, at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, who was also part of the team.

“Even in some intermediate and low-emission scenarios, the Amoc slows drastically by 2100 and completely shuts off thereafter. That shows the shutdown risk is more serious than many people realise.”

The study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, analysed the standard models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The scientists were particularly concerned to find that in many models the tipping point is reached in the next decade or two, after which the shutdown of the Amoc becomes inevitable owing to a self-amplifying feedback.

Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds

Capitalism and its refusal to reduce carbon emissions will kill us all, if we don’t stop it very soon.

Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds — Guardian US

AMOC - Susana’s Ear-style

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One more. Top askreddit of the year with one/two word answers:

— What free things online should everyone take advantage of?

connections

— Are you surprised at the lack of sympathy and outright glee the UHC CEO has gotten after his murder? Why or why not?

No. Vampires

— For the Americans voting in 2024 Election, does Kamala Harris get your vote? Why or why not?

Not american [But c'mon]

— What’s something most people don’t realise will kill you in seconds?

karate and nunchackus [wink wink]

— Guys with extremely loud vehicles, why do you do this to everyone?

carelessness

— People in their 40s, what’s something people in their 20s don’t realize is going to affect them when they age?

time

— What are your thoughts on the Harris and Trump debate?

need hobby

— What was the scariest “We need to leave… now” gut feeling that you’ve ever experienced?[Serious]

fire alarm

— What’s a hack in your industry that customers aren’t supposed to find out?

looks deceive

— People who are no longer bound by NDAs, what are some surprising secrets that you can expose?

not me

— What’s your “I can’t believe other people don’t do this” hack?

sleep in

— Which show starts as a 10/10, but ends as a 1/10?

all

— You wake up in 1950, you’re 20 again, with no identifiable paperwork, no house, no connections, only a suitcase filled with 50,000 dollars, what are you going to do?

be murdered

— What illegal thing do you do on a regular basis?

sodomy [not so regulary]

— Americans of Reddit, since today is Election Day, how are you feeling?

not american

— Biden just pardoned his son, Hunter on all federal charges, what do you think?

need better hobby

— What was your “I’m dating/married to a fucking idiot” Moment?

not married, not dating

— Men, why do you often say you’re fine even when you’re not?

so tough [also better than you]

— What’s a secret that you think would shock everyone if it came out?

all’s good [secretly]

— Which job has, hands down, the worst impact on mental health?

torture specialist

— If modern medicine didn’t exist would you be dead right now? If yes, from what?

yes, hunger

— What did you buy as an adult because you were denied it as a child?

nothing particularly

— What’s a creepy fact you wish you never learned?

no regrets

— For the ones who make over $150k a year, what do you do to get that?

not me

— Whats a thing that is dangerously close to collapse that you know about?

society, the amoc