Going Somewhere
I loved watching The Jetsons when I was a kid. It was fun to ponder their future-forward imaginations of how we would one day live. Heck, I like watching old clips of them today, but mostly for chuckles. They got some things wrong, but also a lot of things right.
Like autonomous driving. Well, kind of. In The Jetsons, they had a flying car that ran on autopilot. We are not quite there yet in that regard, but when it comes to autonomous vehicles, we are starting to cover some ground.
While there are many critics who allege this is still a half-baked idea, the odds are increasing that if you hail a taxi or ride share in a growing number of large US cities, there won’t be anyone driving it.
Zoox is the latest to take on sector leader Waymo and the distant second-place Tesla. A subsidiary of Amazon, Zoox launched in Las Vegas earlier this month. And rather than traditional-looking cars with a slew of cameras mounted everywhere, the Zoox robotaxi looks like a very futuristic four-wheeled pod going down the road. I can only imagine all the Amazon ads appearing on the inside.
Unlike standard vehicles, Zoox cars can run forward or backwards, and feature two bench seats facing one another, with a capacity of four riders. They are EVs and can run for 16 hours on a charge. Presumably they will automatically return to the company depot for a recharge as needed.
For the moment, Zoox is offering free rides, but will eventually start charging, presumably with rates similar to that of Waymo and Tesla. Amazon plans to expand service to San Francisco, Miami, and Austin, all of which are hotbeds for autonomous taxis already.
Now comes the consumer behavior question: Will people actually use these?
Thus far, the answer is pretty favorable, in spite of the critics. Waymo has had more than 10 million paid rides. Trust is certainly paramount in the minds of consumers. While by no means perfect—after all, they co-exist with human-driven vehicles—thus far autonomous taxis have fewer crashes, injuries, and deaths than compared to vehicles driven by humans.
Just like with Uber and Lyft, you can hail a cab via an app, and then wait for your ride. Perhaps the best parts are that you don’t have to deal with boorish drivers, and you don’t have to tip anyone.
I just wish I had some experience with this phenomenon. It’s not that I don’t travel, because I certainly do. It’s just that my travel is nearly always in my own vehicle, and I don’t find myself needing a ride. I haven’t flown anywhere domestically in years.
But if I find myself in Austin, Vegas, Miami, or the other cities any time soon, I’m thinking it might be fun to simply take a ride somewhere for the sake of checking it out. My inquiring mind wants to know. I am no fan of Austin traffic, and it would be relaxing to let someone else do the driving.
Which ultimately leads us to a broader question: Will these ever take off for our personal vehicles? I realize there have been some examples of autonomous cars owned by private citizens, but thus far this has been left primarily to those trying to take on traditional taxis and peer-to-peer providers. It sounds good, though, because I could catch some serious naps on my long drives if this were the case.
There’s a big difference, though, between robotaxis and personal autonomous vehicles. Robotaxis have only been cleared for city streets, and not freeways or tollroads. Thus, all of the rides will be short and at slow speeds. Any crashes will more than likely be low-impact. We still have a long way to go with high-speed travel. I have no problem trusting a Zoox or a Waymo in town compared to something cruising at 75mph.
And then there is the disruption of an otherwise longstanding form of employment, whether you are a full-time cabbie or doing Uber as a side hustle. These jobs will be affected, yet another example of how technology has a way of disintermediating humans from the equation. That is a recurring criticism these days, especially among those who reject the idea of self-check kiosks at the grocery.
I’m pretty sure we’ll all get over it, because we always have. Think about how ATMs and then more recently online banking have killed a lot of banking jobs. Consider how being able to book all of your travel needs online practically killed the travel agent career path. I could go on. The humans will have to find something else to do, because it’s called progress.
Based on how many Waymo rides have already happened, I’d say the autonomous taxi business is making excellent progress. I suspect Zoox will find similar success, as will Tesla. I just wonder how we will handle road rage when there’s no one to flip off in the car beside us.
Dr “Can’t Wait To Try This” Gerlich
Audio Blog